2019 Physics/Theoretical Colloquium Thursday, July 18th , 2019 3:45 – 4:45 p.m. Physics Auditorium (TA-3-0215-182) Refreshments at 3:15pm Speaker: Dr. Alina Deshpande B-10: Biosecurity and Public Health “Analytics for Investigation of Disease Outbreaks (AIDO) – A web-based analytic facilitating situational awareness in unfolding disease outbreaks” Abstract: Information from historical infectious disease outbreaks provides real-world data about outbreaks and its impacts on affected populations. These data can be used to develop a picture of an unfolding outbreak in its early stages when incoming information is sparse and isolated, in order to identify effective control measures and guide their implementation. LANL has developed a web-based visual analytic called Analytics for the Investigation of Disease Outbreaks (AIDO), available at https://aido.bsvgateway.org that uses historical outbreak information for decision support and situational awareness of an unfolding outbreak. We developed an algorithm to allow the matching of unfolding outbreak data to a representative library of historical outbreaks. This process provides epidemiological clues that facilitate a user’s understanding of an unfolding outbreak and facilitates informed decisions about mitigation actions. Disease-specific properties to build a complete picture of the unfolding event were identified through a data-driven approach. A method of analogs approach was used to develop a short-term forecasting feature in the analytic and it also offers anomalous event identification based on epidemiological features. The tool currently includes representative, global historical outbreaks for 39 infectious diseases with over 650 diverse outbreaks. AIDO offers a rapid, novel and simple means of data analysis that is not complex to understand, not computationally intensive, and does not require significant user input. It provides robust decision support and actionable information that facilitates situational awareness in infectious disease surveillance.